A top commodities analyst at %Citigroup (NYSE: $C) is warning that gold’s rally may now be over and that the price could drop as low as $2,500 U.S. an ounce over the coming year.
Max Layton, global commodities head at Citi Research, predicts %Gold will trade at about $2,500 U.S. to $2,700 U.S. by the second half of 2026, down about $900 U.S. from current levels.
“Our call is very much a 2026 bearish gold call,” said Layton in a television interview. “Near term, we have it averaging around $3,200 U.S. in the third quarter and $3,000 U.S. in the fourth quarter.”
Gold is currently trading at $3,360.50 U.S. per ounce and is up more than 70% over the past two years.
Earlier this spring, gold’s price rose above $3,500 U.S. an ounce for the first time, hitting an all-time high in the process.
Geopolitical instability and macroeconomic uncertainty have sent investors scurrying for the safety of gold.
At the same time, central banks around the world are increasing their gold holdings to record levels, further driving up the price of bullion.
Layton acknowledges that people are buying gold to hedge against downside risks and are worried about slowing economic growth and global turmoil.
However, the leading commodities analyst says he expects a drop in gold’s price in coming months due to weakening demand and a U.S. interest rate cut.
Any signs of strength in the U.S. economy could also lead to capital flowing out of gold and moving back into riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies, notes Layton.
Lastly, Layton said that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic stimulus bill is approved in Congress, it will reorient investors back to American growth and away from gold.
Citigroup’s outlook stands in contrast to other Wall Street firms.
%GoldmanSachs (NYSE: $GS), for example, forecasts that the price of gold will rise to $3,700 U.S. by late 2025 and $4,000 U.S. by mid-2006 thanks to continued central bank buying.
%BankofAmerica (NYSE: $BAC) also sees gold’s price hitting $4,000 U.S. in 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical chaos.
Citigroup’s stock has gained 12% this year to trade at $78.35 U.S. per share.
