Global %Commodity prices are getting crushed as a trade war between the U.S. and China escalates and recession signals flash a red alert.
The S&P GSCI index, which tracks global commodities across the energy, metals and agriculture sectors, has declined nearly 10% since April 2 when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a slew of new import tariffs.
Commodity prices briefly recovered on April 9 after the White House walked back many of its tariff measures.
However, the rebound in commodity prices was short lived as President Trump turned up the pressure on China by raising the tariff rate on Chinese imported goods to 125%.
China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities, including oil and natural gas, and the higher-than-expected tariffs are likely to be a drag on growth in China and the wider world.
Prices for energy and industrial metals, in particular, are getting hit hard by the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the U.S. and China.
For its part, China has raised its import duties on U.S. goods to 84%.
Of all the commodities, energy has fallen the most since April 2, declining 12%, according to S&P Global.
Industrial metals have posted the second steepest loss at 9%, followed by soft commodities, which fell roughly 5.2%, according to S&P Global.
Oil prices are sensitive to the trade escalations as China is the largest importer of crude oil in the world, and the fact that oil prices are denominated in the U.S. dollar.
Expectations of further declines in commodity prices are growing as it looks increasingly likely that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
%JPMorganChase (NYSE: $JPM) recently issued a forecast calling for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to decline 0.3% this year.
Industrial metals continue to slide lower on recession fears, with copper prices falling to $8,380 U.S. per ton in New York, a 16% decline since April 2.
Investment bank %GoldmanSachs (NYSE: $GS) has lowered its forecast for both energy prices and metals this year as it anticipates a stagnant U.S. economy in 2025.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S. standard, is currently trading at $60 U.S. per barrel, having fallen 3% between April 9 and 10.
