The upcoming World Cup soccer tournament is proving to be a boon to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
With two days to go before the World Cup officially begins on June 11, prediction markets have seen wagers on the tournament surpass $2 billion U.S.
The most popular betting on Kalshi and Polymarket concerns the winner of this year’s World Cup, with Spain and France nearly tied among current bets placed.
Polymarket data shows that Spain and France are each trading near a 16% implied chance of winning the tournament.
That’s ahead of England at 11%, Portugal at 10%, and defending champion Argentina at 9%.
Analysts say the World Cup being held across North America is a test for prediction markets and whether they can rival sportsbooks when it comes to betting on a major event.
Polymarket’s World Cup market has generated roughly $2 billion U.S. in trading volumes before the tournament has started, while Kalshi’s comparable market has crossed $100 million U.S.
The figures place the World Cup among the largest sports markets yet for prediction platforms that compete against licensed gambling operators for betting.
The surge in World Cup betting comes as regulators around the world debate whether prediction markets are legitimate trading or pure gambling.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are privately held companies and their stocks do not trade on a public exchange.
