Wall Street brokerage Bernstein expects as much as $10 billion U.S. in wagers on the World Cup soccer tournament to be placed on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
Calling the World Cup that kicks off June 11 a “watershed moment” for prediction markets, Bernstein expects the tournament to deliver $5 billion U.S. to $10 billion U.S. in prediction market trading volumes.
Analysts at Bernstein previously forecast that the prediction market sector will reach $1 trillion U.S. in annual volumes by 2030, with 2026 volumes expected to reach $240 billion U.S.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events such as elections, interest rate decisions, and popular culture.
Betting on the outcome of sports is the biggest revenue driver on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Bernstein notes that the World Cup is the biggest sporting event globally, drawing billions of viewers when it occurs every four years.
Kalshi and Polymarket have reported that betting on the World Cup’s winner this year drew $2 billion U.S. in wagers leading up to the tournament’s start.
Betting on the World Cup arrives as a growing number of jurisdictions seek to regulate or shutdown prediction markets, arguing that they are unlicensed gambling operations.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are privately held and their stocks do not trade on a public exchange.
