Scientists are warning that the formation of a “Super El Niño” weather pattern threatens commodities around the world, from crops and crude oil to the extraction of metals.
A growing number of climatologists are warning that extreme weather is likely to impact commodities in the year’s second half, potentially driving up prices.
Specifically, scientists are forecasting droughts, monsoons, and other severe climate events this autumn due to a Super El Niño.
Bank of America’s (NYSE: $BAC) commodities team is warning that the coming El Niño is “likely to be very strong” and destructive.
An El Niño is a weather pattern in which unusually warm water spreads across the Pacific Ocean, shifting climate patterns and bringing heavy rain to some regions and drought to others.
A Super El Niño is more likely to trigger severe flooding, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events worldwide, potentially destroying crops and upending markets.
A total of 20 El Niño weather events have been recorded in the past 75 years. Of those, only six have reached the level of severity expected this year.
Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are already above average for this time of year, note scientists.
Such extreme weather is known to disrupt crop cycles and other agricultural commodities, as well as make it difficult to extract crude oil and metals.
This year’s Super El Niño is expected to peak in the autumn, threatening to dry out soil in the middle of South America’s planting season and leading to a stronger hurricane season.
Wheat production in Australia is forecast to fall by up to 60% this year if extreme drought conditions emerge. Brazil’s corn crop is expected to decline 10% in 2026.
