New York-based investment manager VanEck is warning that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC) has not yet bottomed despite signs of capitulation emerging.
Specifically, privately held VanEck says that eight of 12 capitulation signals it tracks have appeared, which is encouraging, but that Bitcoin likely has further to fall before bottoming.
The capitulation signals measure things such as when selling is heaviest, crypto miner economics, and how many BTC holders are sitting on losses.
In the past, when eight of 12 indicators were flashing capitulation, Bitcoin returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days and 32% over 180 days.
However, VanEck is telling investors it’s still too early to celebrate and that the “crypto winter” that has gripped digital assets since last October is not done.
In a note to clients, VanEck says that Bitcoin is currently trading 49% below its all-time high of $126,000 U.S. reached last October.
In the past, Bitcoin’s peak-to-trough declines have averaged 11 months, which could put the cryptocurrency near the end of its current drawdown.
Bitcoin entered the 10th month of its decline from the October 2025 peak in August, which places the next accumulation phase between September and November, says VanEck.
VanEck is a private company and its stock does not trade on a public exchange.
