A perpetual contract on Hyperliquid points to a first-day gain of about 35% for SpaceX’s stock.
SpaceX is scheduled to begin trading on the Nasdaq (NDAQ) exchange today (June 12) under the ticker symbol “SPCX.”
With a valuation of $1.77 trillion U.S. and raising $75 billion U.S. from the share sale, SpaceX is the largest IPO in Wall Street’s history.
The perpetual contract on Hyperliquid is trading between $176 U.S. and $183 U.S. per share, which is 30% to 35% above its IPO price of $135 U.S.
Analysts say the Hyperliquid contract provides an indication of how SpaceX’s stock is likely to perform on its first day of trading.
However, the Hyperliquid contract does not give holders SpaceX shares, allocation rights, or any claim on the company.
Rather, the contract is a cash-settled derivative. But because SpaceX priced its IPO at a fixed $135 U.S. a share, it is able to estimate where the stock is likely to go when it hits the Nasdaq.
Hyperliquid is a Layer-1 blockchain that provides spot and perpetual futures trading to investors.
Blockchain-based prediction markets have emerged as the go-to-place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO before it happens.
On prediction market Polymarket, traders put 70% odds on SpaceX’s stock closing its first trading day with a market capitalization above $2 trillion U.S.
Despite the hype, some analysts are warning that SpaceX is grossly overvalued at $1.77 trillion U.S. and that the stock could crash following its market debut.
